Yesterday’s corned beef hash wasn’t very healthy, so today let’s go with a veggie omelette with egg whites. It’s Tuesday, after all. Sigh.
To absolutely no one’s surprise, Jamie Raskin is running for Congress in CD8. Michael Dresser in the Sun has the scoop. But Raskin’ll “formally announce his race in April.” So I guess this is an informal report of an informal announcement. I’ll have balloons and cake (and a better breakfast) in April too. Fair is fair.
Now there’s two candidates in the race. I set the over/under right now at around 4-5. I’m pretty sure I’d take the under on 6; below that I’m not certain.
In any event, anyone who didn’t see the Raskin candidacy coming has not been paying attention. Bad reader. Bad.
Prince George’s Delegate Jay Walker announced an “exploratory committee” in CD4 last week. It’s on his FB page. We’re not friends (well, I never!) so if you are, you can go read it. March 18. All I have is a blurry screenshot which will just make your eyes hurt. You’re welcome.
I’ve been inadvertently leaving Anthony Muse out of my recent CD4 list. Not intentional - he is a serious challenger if he runs.
Either today or tomorrow I will have a post up about the deep ancient history and rivalries driving the decision-making in the Senate race. You thought high school was bad? Combine Annapolis and Washington, let sit for as much as 30-40 years in a stew of personal and institutional rivalries, and watch the bitterness bubble over. Serve with generous helpings of popcorn and beer. Ooooh, fun. Can’t wait.
Let’s talk about name recognition in congressional races. How well known are the candidates to their prospective electorates?
As I pass silently through the tunnels listening to rumors and innuendo, I’ve heard it said that “everyone knows” this or that potential candidate and that the candidate has 75% name recognition. Or some equally preposterous notion.
Not a chance, boys and girls. I would bet good money that nobody - not one candidate in any congressional race - starts out with name recognition of even 30%. Anybody wanna take that bet against me?
The problem is that between activists and lobbyists and friends and staff, there’s an apparently large number of people that lead us to think that we know “everyone.” Well, yes, but that group - what Blair Lee once famously called the Golden 5000 who track politics daily (personally, I prefer several times per hour) - is exceedingly small when compared with a congressional or statewide electorate. Those who think otherwise are due for a bucket of cold water to the face when the reality sets in.
A little personal anecdote here. When I ran for delegate last year, I started with the idea that I “knew everyone.” I’d been around local and state politics and campaigns for over a decade, so of course this was true.
I believed this right up until the day I pulled a likely voter list for my own precinct, and found that I knew maybe 15% of the names. That exploded the myth for me. Which was humbling, and good - it made me work harder.
Shocking as it is to us political obsessives, there’s a whole universe of people out there who don’t know their elected officials and don’t care about politics. But they still vote, and in presidential years (1) there’s more of them and (2) they have even less familiarity with their state and local electeds. It’s OK, just breathe slowly through your nose - the nausea will pass. I promise. But the sooner the reality sets in, the better for your favorite candidate’s chances of running a strong race.
Rant over. Drops mic.
Have a good Tuesday. If that’s even possible. And finally, a Maryland Scramble Happy Birthday shoutout to Montgomery County Delegate Bonnie Cullison.
