Establishment outlets like the Washington Post, the Hill and Roll Call are not quite sure what to do with the lingering stench that is the Trump campaign. He hasn’t yet imploded as expected, and his comments and attacks on other candidates have become even more outlandish. Today, the Hill for the third time since May ranked the Republican candidates based on the likelihood of winning the nomination.
I don’t know what race they’re talking about, but it’s not the one I’m watching. Yes, they put Trump first, as they pretty much had to. But Bush at #2, John Kasich at #3, and Scott Walker at #4? Whatever they’re smoking, they need to pass that stuff around, because it’s seriously mind-altering. Bush is melting down, and he keeps picking fights with Trump that are absurdly one-sided. Kasich has not gotten any significant traction other than in New Hampshire, and has nowhere to go even if he wins there. Walker is banking about the hordes of Canadians threatening the Great Lakes, and he’s tanked in Iowa, which was and remains the key to his campaign.
Rubio at #5 is not awful, but I’d probably rank him lower. Carson at #6 is absurd given the recent polling showing him at 18% in Iowa and with the highest favorables of anyone in the race. Cruz should be top three at a minimum. And I don’t want to read any more about party elites deciding who is and isn’t electable. Whoever these elites are, they couldn’t even exercise control over their first “party” debate - Fox News made all the decisions. Huckabee at 8 is about right, he’s worn out his welcome on his third run. Fiorina should be much higher than 9, and Paul shouldn’t even be in the discussion, he’s done.
The Hill has yet to come to grips with the fact that the Republican electorate has collectively lost its mind, and is no mood to listen to the Hill or any other so-called “party elites” in the process of winnowing down the field. Quite the contrary - the more it appears that such elites are ganging up on Trump, the better he will do.
My top 10 right now: Cruz, Trump, Bush, Carson, Fiorina, Rubio, Kasich, Walker, Huckabee, Jindal (he was the last one of the clowns out of the car when I made my list, so I thought he deserved his one minute in the Maryland Scramble limelight).
Perhaps I’ve had some of what they’re smoking.
If the question is “who is most likely to be nominated?”, then the most difficult part of their analysis for me is rating Trump number 1. There are waaayyyy too many Republican office holders, party officials, and generally sane adults in the Republican Party for that to happen. Frankly, there may be too many Republicans who would literally require him to crawl across their dead bodies for that to happen.
Frankly, I think Bush, Kasich, Rubio and Romney are the only realistic possibilities. They are the only ones currently on the table that the “Establishment” would not do it’s level best to veto. If the T-Party or the Religious Right were to overrule the establishment and actually nominate Trump or Cruz or Huckabee or Paul or, perhaps Carson, we could nominate Bernie and still win.
The GOP establishment, or what’s left of it, has no ability to enforce the kind of decision you contemplate. And unlike the Dems, the Rs still have a bunch of winner take all primaries in states like California and New York. So if Trump wins a bunch of those types of states, he’s going to have the delegates he needs to win at the convention. Or at least enough to block anyone else. And it’s not like his delegates are going to be party regulars - they don’t care if Reince Priebus tried to threaten them. They probably couldn’t pick his picture out of a photo album. I’m hoping for chaos, and each day I feel like we’re getting closer to Shangri-la.