Kevin Gillogly is one of Montgomery County’s premier number crunchers and voter universe analysts. He’s one of the very few people who knows more about voter data than I do - mostly. He’s been working on campaigns here for a long time. He takes a closer look at the Goucher Poll numbers and comes away even more concerned than I expressed earlier.
This poll is a good one. And I concur with its insight and Jonathan’s comments. But I like to look under the hood. That is where the interesting stuff is. I just don’t read the top line questions but prefer to look deeper, especially the historic trend of pocketbook questions. But first I digress. To my fellow activists that read this blog. We are insiders – the 3/3s of politics. My point? Beware of the MD Political Cone of Silence.
We think that everyone is with us on how bad the Governor is doing on Mass Transit and Education cuts. We also believe that the majority of Marylanders agree with us on the Freddie Gray case and Confederate memorials. This poll is a clear “not really” to those views. So our messaging on these issues has to be more than preaching to the choir or we will lose in 2018.
To the main (and second) point is look at pages 16 and 17 of the Goucher Press Release. These are the economic questions. There are three questions of note: 1) Right Direction / Wrong Track; 2) How Your Personal Financial Situation is compared to a year ago; and 3) Same as #2 but looking ahead. These questions have all moved to a more favorable result, especially Right Direction / Wrong Track. They have all tracked very well for an incumbent officeholder.
I believe it is the generally improving economy – in the eyes of Marylanders – that is driving the favorable numbers for Hogan and the status quo, even if you personally believe that there needs to be change.
And if there is a take away from looking under the hood? That Anthony Brown was facing three main tides against his being elected as Governor last year: Obama Fatigue, O’Malley Fatigue and The Negative View of The Economy. And these economic poll questions confirm the economic portion of that triangle.
In reviewing the polling data, I agree with Kevin for the most part. The only item that caught my attention was the poll over samples males, who, in virtually every area, view Hogan more favorably; however, I don’t think it wouldn’t change the numbers significantly overall. Also, it doesn’t show (and I don’t have access to) the breakdown of priorities of voters in 2014 relative to today. Was education the number one priority then as it is now?
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