BREAKING: Van Hollen Leads In New Poll

The Baltimore Sun reports this blustery Sunday afternoon on the results of a new Senate poll showing Chris Van Hollen leading Donna Edwards by double digits.

After weeks of targeting Baltimore-area voters with television advertising, Rep. Chris Van Hollen has opened a significant, double-digit lead in Maryland’s closely watched Democratic primary race to succeed retiring Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski, according to a new poll for The Baltimore Sun and the University of Baltimore.

The seven-term lawmaker from Montgomery County is running ahead of Rep. Donna F. Edwards of Prince George’s County in virtually every corner of the state, and is performing remarkably well among women, black voters and other groups that the Edwards campaign has viewed as critical to its success.
Forty-five percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they would support Van Hollen, compared with 31 percent for Edwards. The 14-point spread will reorder the conventional wisdom that Edwards enjoyed a slight lead.

Elijah Cummings still casts a large shadow over the race, even as it appears increasingly unlikely that he will join the race.

Rep. Elijah E. Cummings, who is still deciding whether to jump into the race, would be a game-changer if he did: The Baltimore lawmaker would capture 40 percent of the state’s Democratic voters, the poll found, enough to lead Van Hollen and Edwards in a three-way race.

Conventional wisdom upended. I always knew that the Post poll was skewed by problems with its methodology and approach. But it’s also true that Van Hollen’s sustained advertising in Baltimore has had a major impact as well.

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