Polling

Post-ABC News Poll

Jonathan Polling, President 2016 ,

Of course it came out right after I did the earlier polling post, so now I have to do another one. This national GOP poll shows more of the same: Trump leading big, Cruz second, and Rubio and Carson roughly tied for third. Bush trails substantially further behind. Think Monmouth rather than NBC-WSJ.

Donald Trump 38% (+6)
Ted Cruz 15% (+7)
Marco Rubio 12% (+1)
Ben Carson 12% (-10)
Jeb Bush 5% (-1)
Chris Christie 4% (+2)
John Kasich 2% (-1)
Rand Paul 2% (-1)
Carly Fiorina 1% (-3)
Mike Huckabee 1% (-2)

GOP Polling Dump

Jonathan Polling, President 2016 , ,

All at once, because while I could do six or seven posts, one on each poll, I like you too much to subject you to all that Republican miasma. Bottom line: Trump is rolling nationally, but Cruz is looking like the leader in the Iowa race.

Let’s start with the national polls:

Monmouth, December 10-13, 2015, 1006 respondents, margin of error +/- 5.0%

Donald Trump 41% (+13)
Ted Cruz 14% (+4)
Marco Rubio 10% (+4)
Ben Carson 9% (-9)
Jeb Bush 3% (-2)
John Kasich 3% (+2)
Chris Christie 2% (-1)
Carly Fiorina 2% (-4)
Mike Huckabee 2% (-2)
Rand Paul 2% (-2)

NBC/Wall Street Journal, December 6-9, 2015, 400 respondents, margin of error +/- 4.9%

Donald Trump 27% (+4)
Ted Cruz 22% (+12)
Marco Rubio 15% (+4)
Ben Carson 11% (-18)
Jeb Bush 7% (-1)
Carly Fiorina 5% (+2)
Chris Christie 3% (0)
Mike Huckabee 3% (0)
John Kasich 2% (-1)
Rand Paul 2% (0)

Note that although these are the two most recent national polls, they are at the extreme poles from one another. Trump does his best in the Monmouth poll and his worst in the NBC/WSJ. Cruz has his highest numbers in the NBC/WSJ tally. But even if we extend it to five additional polls, the pattern is the same. The current Real Clear Politics average over seven polls is: Trump 31.4, Cruz 16.3, Rubio 13.3, Carson 12.6, Bush 4.0, Fiorina 2.6, Christie 2.6, Kasich 2.3, Paul 2.1, Huckabee 2.0.

Trump is ascendant, Carson is cratering, Cruz is surging, and so is Rubio but to a lesser extent. Bush is treading water, and the rest really need to get back to their day jobs or start overtly positioning themselves as VP bait.

Iowa, on the other hand, is much more special in that very special Iowa kind of way. Three new polls over the weekend.

Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register, December 7-10, 2015, 400 respondents, margin of error +/- 4.9%

Ted Cruz 31% (+21)
Donald Trump 21% (+2)
Ben Carson 13% (-15)
Marco Rubio 10% (+1)
Jeb Bush 6% (+1)
Chris Christie 3% (+2)
Mike Huckabee 3% (0)
Rand Paul 3% (-2)
John Kasich 2% (0)
Carly Fiorina 1% (-3)

Fox News, December 7-10, 2015, 450 respondents, margin of error +/- 4.5% (no baseline for this poll, first one in 2015)

Ted Cruz 28%
Donald Trump 26%
Marco Rubio 13%
Ben Carson 10%
Jeb Bush 5%
Rand Paul 5%
Chris Christie 2%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Mike Huckabee 1%
John Kasich 1%

Quinnipiac, December 4-13, 2015, 874 respondents, margin of error +/- 3.3%

Donald Trump 28% (+3)
Ted Cruz 27% (+4)
Marco Rubio 14% (+1)
Ben Carson 10% (-8)
Jeb Bush 5% (+1)
Rand Paul 4% (-1)
Chris Christie 3% (+1)
Carly Fiorina 3% (0)
Mike Huckabee 1% (-1)
John Kasich 1% (0)

If Trump manages to win Iowa, look out. He’ll probably springboard that into a New Hampshire win, building huuuuuuuuuuge momentum going to South Carolina and Nevada. If Cruz sneaks by Trump, the calculus changes dramatically, and he becomes the favorite in South Carolina and the friendly Super Tuesday states of the SEC primary. The door will be open, briefly, for someone other than Trump to win New Hampshire - most likely Rubio, less likely Bush.

Rubio is in a bind that is simple to define but not at all easy to fix: he’s doing better, but where does he win early? Finishing a strong second or third over and over again leaves you nowhere in this race. He has to break through somewhere and I can’t say there’s a clear shot anywhere.

If Cruz’s momentum continues in Iowa, and he doesn’t get annihilated in New Hampshire, there’s ache de he runs the tense in a whole lot of states, including some of the big winner take all contests as the calendar moves to March and April. This race is shaping up in his favor, but it all starts with Iowa.

Prediction: Ted Cruz Will Win The Iowa Caucuses

Jonathan Polling, President 2016 ,

You didn’t actually hear it here first, but it’s two months out and the momentum is huge, or should I say “yuuuuuuuge.” The latest Monmouth University poll is out and Cruz is, well, cruising.

Stoked by evangelical and tea-party support, Ted Cruz has surged to first place in Iowa, according to the results of a Monmouth University poll released Monday surveying voters likely to participate in the Republican caucus on Feb. 1.

Cruz earned 24 percent of support among likely caucus-goers, with 19 percent opting for Donald Trump, whose polling advantage in the state has dwindled in recent weeks. In a Quinnipiac University survey conducted in mid-November, Trump held a slim 25 percent to 23 percent advantage over Cruz, while retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson finished with 18 percent.

In this survey, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finished third with 17 percent, followed by 13 percent for Carson (a 19-point drop from October), 6 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 4 percent for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, 3 percent for former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and 2 percent for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. All other candidates finished with 1 percent or less support, with 4 percent undecided and 1 percent describing themselves as “uncommitted.”

Look at the three month October-November-December shifts. November is a Quinnipiac poll, the other two are Monmouth. 

Cruz 10-23-24
Trump 18-25-19
Rubio 10-13-17
Carson 32-18-13
Bush 8-4-6
Trump is treading water, the Quinnipiac November poll appears to be an outlier. Cruz is surging, Rubio is steadily gaining ground and Carson has crashed and burned.

Cruz will likely win Iowa. If Trump holds second place, he remains viable and significant. If, however, Rubio edges him out, then Trump will be damaged badly, and the long-awaited Rubio vs. Cruz cage match will commence. Bush has to hope that doesn’t happen, because if it does it leaves no room for a Lazarus-McCain rise from the dead play for Jeb! If Trump holds off Rubio and Bush beats Carson (probably unlikely, but this is Iowa we’re talking about, so who knows) Bush will be primed for a possible comeback. Then on to New Hampshire.

Less than two months to go! Boy do I love primary season.

Maryland Presidential Polls

Jonathan Polling, President 2016

The Sun has a new set of presidential polls out for Maryland. While he might be slipping elsewhere, Ben Carson continues to lead here. And Hillary Clinton maintains a big lead over Bernie Sanders, while Martin O’Malley is in single digits.

First the GOP race:

  

Though support for Dr. Ben Carson has slipped across the country, the retired Johns Hopkins neurosurgeon maintains a narrow lead for the Republican nomination in Maryland, a new poll for The Baltimore Sun and the University of Baltimore has found.

In the state where he lived and built an international reputation in the operating room, the first-time political candidate sits atop a crowded and unruly GOP field trying to attract a GOP electorate divided between centrist and conservative voters.
Carson’s continuing strength in Maryland is striking in a state where Republicans have tended to support more moderate candidates, such as Gov. Larry Hogan, and at a time that his poll numbers nationally and in early nominating states have been falling.
“There are enough people in the state who have had personal interaction with him, or have a great deal of personal professional respect for him as a neurosurgeon,” said Steve Raabe, president of Annapolis-based OpinionWorks, which conducted the survey. “He has that going for him.”

And on the Democratic side:

Marylanders continue to have a low level of support for former Gov. Martin O’Malley’s presidential ambitions, a new poll for The Baltimore Sun and the University of Baltimore shows.

Only 7 percent of Maryland Democrats say they would vote for O’Malley for president, compared with 56 percent for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 23 percent for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
O’Malley has failed to break out of single digits anywhere in the country, including his home state. Opponents cite O’Malley’s lackluster polling in the state he led for eight years to question his viability on the national stage.
O’Malley is supported by only 4 percent of Democrats in Baltimore, the city he once led as mayor for two terms, and just 2 percent of primary voters in nearby Baltimore County, the poll found.

Ted Cruz Rising

Jonathan Polling, President 2016 ,

That sudden cold air we’ve been experiencing the past few days? It’s not just the weather - Tailgunner Ted Cruz is on the march in Iowa and the nation is having a moment of existential terror at the prospect of President Cruz. Brrrrrrrr.

Ted Cruz, buoyed by tea party support and the backing of the conservative wing of the Republican Party, has surged to a virtual tie with Donald Trump in the first caucus state of Iowa, according to the results of a Quinnipiac University poll surveying likely Republican caucus-goers released Tuesday.

Trump took 25 percent of support, followed by 23 percent who opted for the freshman Texas senator, more than doubling his support in the same poll from October, when he earned just 10 percent. Trailing the two leaders is Ben Carson, who dropped from first to third, falling 10 points to 18 percent.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is next with 13 percent, while no other candidate registered in the double digits. Only Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul registers outside of the margin of error, at 5 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush dropped a point from last month to 4 percent, followed by 3 percent for Carly Fiorina. No other candidate earned more than 2 percent support, and about 2 percent of Iowa Republicans said they were undecided.

The media’s been talking up Marco Rubio, but at this point it’s been Cruz whose numbers have bumped up the most. He’s the most likely to win Iowa, and while that hasn’t translated to ultimate victory in recent GOP contests, Cruz has the money and the base of support to springboard from an Iowa win to later success.  

Carson Descending

Jonathan Polling, President 2016 ,

Is Ben Carson in decline? According to the polls, the answer appears to be yes, thankfully. Politico:

Weeks of tough scrutiny are beginning to take a toll: Ben Carson appears to be fading in Iowa, and there are signs he may be hitting the wall in other early states.

A CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday showed Carson slipping below 20 percent in Iowa and to third place behind Donald Trump and Ted Cruz — the first time he’s had a rating of less than 20 percent in a major poll there since September. Since his late October Iowa high point, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Carson has dropped 8 percentage points in Iowa and 5 points in New Hampshire.

In South Carolina, which isn’t polled nearly as much as the other two early states, there aren’t as many data points. But after leading the GOP field there with 28 percent in an early November Monmouth University poll, Carson now finds himself a distant second. According to the latest CBS/YouGov poll of South Carolina Republicans, Carson has 19 percent to Trump’s 35 percent.

All of that suggests a challenging road ahead for the retired pediatric neurosurgeon, said Patrick Murray, the director of polling at Monmouth University, which surveys in the early states.

Conservative voters “really want an outsider candidate, [but] they want somebody who appears presidential … with a clear fire in the belly, and I think that’s where Carson has been letting them down,” Murray said. He went on to add, ”Carson is a natural fit for conservative voters, but he seems to have faded as recent national security issues highlighted some doubts conservative voters were already having about him.”

“Some doubts.” As in, doubts about his connection to reality, to veracity, to rational thinking? There’s something very, very wrong with that guy, and the idea of him as president is terrifying. Fortunately, it appears increasingly likely that his next trip to the White House will be as a tourist.

BREAKING/FIRST LOOK: CD8 Poll Results

Jonathan Maryland CD8, Polling

We now have our first poll numbers from the CD8 race, courtesy of the Raskin campaign.

Raskin 30
Matthews 21
Sol Gutierrez 11
Barve 5
Anderson 3
Jawando 2
Rubin <1

28% of voters are undecided.

Not all that surprised by the Raskin/Matthews numbers. Very surprised by the Sol Gutierrez/Barve/Jawando numbers. Hers are better than expected, while Barve and Jawando are not as good. Would be interesting to know if any other candidates have their own internal numbers and how they compare.

Here’s the Raskin poll memo.   
   

 As with any poll, I’d like to see the full cross-tabs and the questions asked. And I’d also like to see full geographic results, as well as name recognition and favorability numbers.

And as always, results from internal campaign polls are likely to be more favorable than an outside poll for a media organization. But we now have a baseline against which to compare future polls, and Raskin leads.

If I get more details, I’ll post them.

Two GOP Polls

Jonathan Polling, President 2016

Two new national GOP polls, one from the Post and one from McClatchy/Marist. Although there are differences, the broad outlines remain the same. Trump and Carson, then everyone else way behind.

In the Post poll, Trump is up substantially over Carson, Marco Rubio is third, Ted Cruz fourth and Jeb Bush fifth.

Donald Trump remains atop the crowded GOP field in a new Washington Post/ABC News poll with 32 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters listing the real estate mogul as their first choice.

Retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson is the first choice of 22 percent of Republican voters nationally, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) with 11 percent.
Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) has 8 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has 6 percent.
No other GOP candidate had more than 4 percent support.

In the McClatchy poll, Carson leads Trump by a miniscule one percent. Otherwise, it looks the same.

Ben Carson and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in the race for the GOP’s 2016 presidential nomination among Republican voters, according to the latest national poll.

Carson leads Trump by a single point in the McClatchy-Marist survey released Tuesday.
The retired pediatric neurosurgeon takes 24 percent to the outspoken billionaire’s 23 percent among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the only other GOP contender with double-digit support, ranks third with 12 percent.

Former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-Fla.) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) tie for fourth place with 8 percent each, the new poll added.

The pattern is clear - Trump and Carson in the top tier, then Rubio, Cruz and Bush well behind in tier two. Forget everyone else.

Those impatiently waiting for the Trump and/or Carson implosions get no relief from these numbers. Similarly, the long-awaited Rubio/Cruz surge(s) haven’t materialized, either. 

Dixon Leads For Baltimore Mayor

Jonathan Baltimore, Baltimore Mayor, Polling

Sunday is apparently poll day at the Sun. Another new poll shows former mayor Sheila Dixon with a sizable lead in the mayoral primary race.

Dixon 24
Pugh 13
Stokes 11
Mosby 10
Embry 7
Warnock 5

Former Mayor Sheila Dixon is the clear early front-runner in a crowded field to become Baltimore’s next mayor, a new poll for The Baltimore Sun and the University of Baltimore shows.

Dixon, who was favored by nearly a quarter of the respondents, leads the Democratic primary race by 11 points over her closest rival, state Sen. Catherine E. Pugh.

City Councilmen Carl Stokes and Nick J. Mosby are close behind in third and fourth place, trailed by lawyer Elizabeth Embry and businessman David L. Warnock.

“Sheila Dixon has almost a 2-to-1 lead, and not only that, but her support is the firmest by far,” said Steve Raabe, president of OpinionWorks, the Annapolis-based firm that conducted the poll. Dixon has a wide lead among older voters and African-Americans, the poll shows.

But many Democrats have not made up their minds about how to vote in the April 26 primary, the poll shows, with more than a quarter of respondents undecided. For decades, the contest among the city’s Democrats, who outnumber Republicans by a 10-1 margin, has decided the mayor’s race.

BREAKING: Van Hollen Leads In New Poll

Jonathan Maryland Senate, Polling ,

The Baltimore Sun reports this blustery Sunday afternoon on the results of a new Senate poll showing Chris Van Hollen leading Donna Edwards by double digits.

After weeks of targeting Baltimore-area voters with television advertising, Rep. Chris Van Hollen has opened a significant, double-digit lead in Maryland’s closely watched Democratic primary race to succeed retiring Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski, according to a new poll for The Baltimore Sun and the University of Baltimore.

The seven-term lawmaker from Montgomery County is running ahead of Rep. Donna F. Edwards of Prince George’s County in virtually every corner of the state, and is performing remarkably well among women, black voters and other groups that the Edwards campaign has viewed as critical to its success.
Forty-five percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they would support Van Hollen, compared with 31 percent for Edwards. The 14-point spread will reorder the conventional wisdom that Edwards enjoyed a slight lead.

Elijah Cummings still casts a large shadow over the race, even as it appears increasingly unlikely that he will join the race.

Rep. Elijah E. Cummings, who is still deciding whether to jump into the race, would be a game-changer if he did: The Baltimore lawmaker would capture 40 percent of the state’s Democratic voters, the poll found, enough to lead Van Hollen and Edwards in a three-way race.

Conventional wisdom upended. I always knew that the Post poll was skewed by problems with its methodology and approach. But it’s also true that Van Hollen’s sustained advertising in Baltimore has had a major impact as well.